How Game 7 Has a League-Wide Effect

With just around 10 hours to go until the Stanley Cup is brought onto the ice at Amerant Bank Arena and awarded to this year’s best team, there is a lot on the line for the league as a whole.

Recent history and this season have shown that a strong defensive team is the key to winning the Stanley Cup. This goes back to the 2019 St. Louis Blues with Jordan Binnington playing some of his best hockey and standout defensemen like Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko, Joel Edmundson, and Jay Bouwmeester on the blue line. Flash forward to last year, Adin Hill posted a 0.932 save%, with Alex Pietrangelo (once again), Shea Theodore, Alec Martinez, and Brayden McNabb defending their own end.

If you have been watching the NHL at any point this season, the Florida Panthers seem to be just like the 2019 St. Louis Blues and 2022 Vegas Golden Knights. They have players like Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and a tandem of Anthony Stolarz and Sergei Bobrovsky displaying 0.915 and 0.925 save percentages this season, respectively. This explains why they powered through the Eastern Conference and held a 3-0 series lead in the finals. The only problem is, how is a team prided on their defense entering a Game 7 with not a drop of momentum in their favour?

Defense wins championships… or does it?

Very few people would have chosen the Oilers' backend of Skinner, Nurse, Bouchard, Ekholm, Ceci, etc. over Florida’s overall size and physicality, but the Oilers find themselves in the driver’s seat ahead of Game 7. I can already hear people yelling at me through the computer, so I have to state that obviously Ekholm and Bouchard are incredible defensemen, but it’s the remaining four guys and Skinner that I wouldn’t be dying to put on a roster contending for the Stanley Cup. Recent memory tells us that the core of Ekblad, Forsling, Montour, Ekman-Larsson, and Bobrovsky should win this series, maybe not in four games, but should edge out the Oilers' offensive prowess.

So, how are we heading into a Game 7 with the Panthers losing three consecutive games while being one win away from winning the hardest trophy in the major four sports?

The Connor McDavid Show

The most straightforward reason why Florida finds themselves now tied and headed into a Game 7 is that the best player on the planet is on a mission. Anytime a player is breaking Gretzky postseason records, the opponent is in trouble. The way McDavid is dragging the Oilers through this series is one of the best individual performances we have seen in the past decade, if not longer. McDavid has 8 goals and 42 points through just 24 postseason games, with 0 defensive zone giveaways and a 62% Fenwick score; this guy is on another level.

So, What Does This Mean for the League?

It’s no surprise that teams look around the league and model their rosters after those that have recently found success, but if the Oilers win tonight, things get really confusing. The winning formula that the Oilers have is winning the 2015 draft lottery and drafting Connor McDavid; a strategy that other teams won’t be able to easily replicate (other than when the Leafs get McDavid in 2026 through free agency). So, should teams aim to assemble an NHL all-star team on offense to replicate the McDavid effect, or stick with (recent) tradition and get four solid defensemen in front of an all-star caliber goalie? I’m tempted to lean towards the former, but I think for the next few years having McDavid will be the only strategy that might edge out a well-rounded, physical back-end.