Best and Worst Contracts from Free Agent Frenzy

After an eventful Free Agent Frenzy, we saw some high value contracts signed, as well as some that might sink a team within the next 5 years. Here we’ll take a look at three best and worst contracts that were signed this year. Now, I will only be listing players that were UFA’s, and not just contract extensions, as Victor Hedman, Juraj Slafkovsky & Pavel Buchnevich would be all over this list. As far as criteria goes, this will take into effect the value of their AAV in comparison to their stats, the term and the age that you will be paying them at, and the comparables that were available for cheaper.

Worst-Value Contracts:

1. Sean Monahan (5 x $5,500,000)

As much as it may have been expected that someone would offer Sean Monahan north of $5 million, it is still a contract I think is pretty hard to digest. As of late, Monahan has been able to display his ability on the offensive-side of the puck, but has been unable to prove his ability to do it consistently. Throughout the 2014-2018 seasons with Calgary, Monahan was able to consistently stay healthy and tally up points, but from 2020-2023, the same could not be said. Fortunately, this past year gave Monahan the chance to prove his abilities once again, especially once joining the Winnipeg Jets, post trade deadline. He finished with a respectable 59 points through 83 games this season, proving his ability to solidify the middle of the ice for any roster; but he still isn’t a player that I would be willing to spend 5 and a half million dollars on for FIVE more years. Now, this might be the price of doing business with the Blue Jackets, but at least Monahan will be reunited on a line with his old Calgary buddy, Johnny Gaudreau. With this being the case, we will have to see if they can recreate the success that they both displayed back in their Alberta days. 

1. Elias Lindholm (7 years x $7,750,000)

Coming off of his least productive season since 2017 with the Carolina Hurricanes (44 points), Elias Lindholm just signed a 7 year, $7,750,000 deal with the Boston Bruins. When looking at comparable centres in this UFA class, Max Domi (47 points - $3,750,000), Chandler Stephenson (51 points - $6,250,000) or Adam Henrqiue (51 points - $3,000,000), make it seem like an overpay for Lindholm, based on last seasons performance. Now, the two-way aspects of his game and a weird fit in Vancouver are a few of the variables in his defence, but at first glance this seems like an expensive ticket for a player coming off of the season Lindholm had. Odds are, Lindholm will put on the Boston jersey, put up 90+ points and net the game 7 winner against the Leafs in round one next year, but for now I don’t love this contract for Boston. 

1. Jake Guentzel (7 years x $9,000,000)

Following the Lightning’s General Manager (Julien Brisebois) making the cutthroat decision to tell the team's captain, 2x Stanley Cup champ, and 40 goal scorer of this season to take a $3,000,000 AAV or walk, they had to find their replacement. After trading for Carolina Hurricanes Expiring UFA Jake Guentzel, the Lightning got first dibs to offer a contract to the LW before the July 1st start of free agency. On June 30th, the former Penguin and cup champ signed a 7 year, $9,000,000 deal to play on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov in the sunshine state. Now, as ridiculous as I believe it is to sign a player with a 76-point career high to a $9 million AAV, that doesn’t even take into account the Florida tax benefits. With Florida being a no-tax state, players walk away with a lot more money from their contracts versus those in Toronto or New York. That being said, it is common to see players that sign in Florida take “discounts” as they can save anywhere from $500,000 - $1,500,000 a year by the states tax they play the most in, amongst many other very complicated factors (no, I’m not a CPA or Brandon Pridham so don’t yell at me). All that being said, if Guentzel doesn’t have a few great years, Tampa fans might have a short leash with him as he fills some very big shoes and looks to replace the style of play and success that Stamkos would have had otherwise… This will be very interesting to see play out. 

Honourable Mentions: Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lybushkin, 

Best-Value Contracts:

1. Alexandre Carrier (3 x $3,750,000)

The 27 year old, right-shot defenseman was re-signed in Nashville to join a much improved team with Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei. Carrier is a solid, top 4 defensemen in this league, and will be a huge part of a defence core moving forward alongside Roman Jos and Luke Schenn. In a world where Joel Edmundson gets a $3,850,000 x 4 years contract, and a 36 year old Alec Martinez gets a $4,000,000 contract, highlights just how good this signing is. Carrier’s ability to work effectively under pressure and lock down the d-zone will be a huge asset to this team, and will likely allow this contract to age like some fancy wine. 

1. William Carrier (6x2)

William Carrier (unrelated to Alexandre) is a tough-nosed, big body left winger that will be bringing much-needed presence to the Carolina Hurricanes. He fits well into a mini category of players like Tom Wilson and Brandon Tanev, with a power forward presence and the ability to create scoring opportunities off the board. Despite only playing 39 games last year for the Golden Knights due to a lower-body injury, he was still able to throw 90 hits and post a Corsi and Fenwick % of 54 and 55, respectively, displaying the effect he was able to have well on the ice. Even though he is a champion and a very strong player, bringing in Carrier at 2 million a year is a clear display that Eric Tuslky is ready for the job, following Don Wadell’s departure to beautiful Ohio. The 6 year term, maybe as an incentive to lower the AAV, is just a win-win as Carrier is only 29 years old and the cap will only continue to go up. 

1. Viktor Arvidsson (2x4)

Arvidsson has had some clear injuries troubles over his career, averaging just 54 games a year over the past 5 seasons with the Kings and Preds. Nevertheless, Arvidsson has proven time and time again to be an efficient scorer and his ability to drive his lines offence. His on-ice impact is shown with his 62% fenwick, as well as a 7.4 on-ice expected goal differential. This signing by interim-general manager, Jeff Jackson, was one of many that seemed to win the hearts of Oilers fans over early. Now, getting Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner and Adam Henrique (to return) to sign with the Oilers may just be the outcome of getting to game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, or Jeff Jackson is Jim Nills secret apprentice. Anyways, this is a low-risk signing that will help the Oilers support their top-stars with more scoring and playoff experience, at a very fair price when looking at the market.